The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Open Source Centre (OSC), in cooperation with analysts from the Economic Security Council of Ukraine (ESCU), have published the report "Ore to Ordnance: Disrupting Russia's Artillery Supply Chains." Since artillery accounts for 70% of Ukrainian casualties, restricting its production could have a significant impact on Moscow's military capabilities.
Previous attempts to hinder Russia's artillery production had limited success, as they targeted the entire flow of components that are difficult to control, such as microchips. The new RUSI study proposes an analysis of specific supply chains, identifying more vulnerable points that are less obvious but critical for external influence:
- Cotton Cellulose — а primary ingredient for smokeless powder used in artillery shells. Russia lacks sufficient domestic resources for its production and therefore relies heavily on imports. This dependency makes Russian gunpowder production vulnerable to external interference.
- Chromium — а high-strength metal used to chrome-plate artillery barrels, which increases their durability by two to three times. Around 50% of chromium ore is imported from Kazakhstan, South Africa, China, and India. Without chromium, Russia will find it much more challenging to repair and produce artillery barrels.
- Computer Numerical Control (CNC) Machines are used to manufacture complex components for various Russian weapons, including artillery. Over 70% of CNC machines used by Russia are imported from China. However, even Chinese machines depend on spare parts and technologies sourced from Western countries.
Moscow recognizes its artillery advantage and places special emphasis on it as part of its military strategy. Currently, Russian artillery manufacturers are actively expanding their production capacities. The Plastmass Plant in Kopeysk, which produces ammunition for calibers 100-152 mm, has increased its output by 150% after launching a new automated workshop. The Perm Gunpowder Plant, which supplies over 40% of Russia's gunpowder, has received significant investments to modernize and expand its production capabilities. Uraltransmash Plant in Yekaterinburg, a key manufacturer of artillery systems, is importing technological equipment to boost the production of barrels and munitions.
However, during this expansion phase, Russia's military-industrial potential is also most vulnerable, as it relies on a constant inflow of components, materials, raw resources, and equipment. Allies of Kyiv have a window of opportunity to disrupt this process, slow down production, and, consequently, reduce the amount of new Russian weaponry over the next decade. This must be done simultaneously, in a coordinated manner, and by using all available tools of the sanctions coalition and third countries.
Together with RUSI and OSC, the report was co-authored by analysts from the Economic Security Council of Ukraine: Oleksii Borovikov, Denys Hutyk, Bohdan Kovalenko, Anastasiia Opria, Bohdan Veselovskyi, Olena Yurchenko, and Olena Zhul.